Mpox Is Not the New Pandemic, Experts Say

Some people worry that mpox is gearing up to evolve into a global pandemic complete with COVID-19-like lockdowns. However, mpox experts disagree and urge people not to panic.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently declared the current and ongoing mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. The declaration is the WHO's highest global alert level, meaning the organization believes the disease has the potential to spread across the globe.

Shortly after the WHO's announcement, media outlets worldwide stepped up coverage of the outbreak, with some using alarming phrases suggesting the virus is rapidly spreading and could lead to another COVID-19-like lockdown.

However, experts, including Hans Kluge, WHO's Regional Director for Europe, say that mpox is not the "new COVID."

What is the current mpox situation?

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), since January 2023, the current mpox outbreak — initially centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) — has spread to other countries, including the Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, and Kenya.

More recently, Sweden reported one case of the disease.

The CDC says a "clade I" strain of the mpox virus, which appears to be more easily transmitted through skin-to-skin contact, is the cause of the latest outbreak.

A "clade II" strain, primarily spread via sexual or intimate contact, was responsible for the previous outbreak in 2022, which resulted in more than 30,000 mpox cases in the United States. While clade II is still circulating in the U.S., case numbers remain low.

According to the CDC, clade I is more likely to cause severe symptoms and death than clade II.

Currently, there are no reported cases of clade I mpox in the U.S.

Identifying and treating mpox

Symptoms of mpox begin three to 17 days after exposure to the virus and include a pimple-like rash, fever, swollen lymph nodes, or headache. Recent data suggests that an individual with mpox can spread the disease to others one to four days before they experience symptoms.

There is no treatment approved explicitly for mpox infections. However, since mpox is related to smallpox, antiviral medications developed to treat smallpox may be effective against mpox. Moreover, clinical trials are underway investigating one particular antiviral drug called tecovirimat (TPOXX).

JYNNEOS, an mpox vaccine, is available for high-risk individuals. Health experts suggest that smallpox vaccines also appear to offer some protection from mpox.

Will the mpox outbreak evolve into a pandemic?

Seth Blumberg, M.D., Ph.D., an assistant professor at the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) and mpox expert, said in a research report that an mpox is unlikely to turn into a pandemic because of existing vaccines and antiviral medications that can effectively stop the spread of the virus and reduce the severity in most cases.

"Luckily, mpox has a lower mortality rate than the related smallpox virus," Blumberg said. "However, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the clade 1 case fatality rate has been estimated to be 3.6% this year. Those at greatest risk of dying are those without access to vaccinations and antivirals to manage the infection."

Blumberg noted that if clade I spread to the U.S., the case fatality rate would likely be much lower than rates observed in Africa.

Neil Maniar, director of Northeastern University's Master of Public Health in Urban Health Program and professor of the practice in the Bouvé College of Health Sciences, said in a news release that while it's highly likely clade I mpox will spread to the U.S., the likelihood that it will become a pandemic like COVID-19 is low.

"I don't think this is in any way, shape or form cause for panic or a cause for widespread concern among the general population," Maniar said. "Unlike COVID-19, where we didn't have a vaccine in the early days of the pandemic, here we know how to treat it. We have a vaccine to treat mpox, so it's really critical we get vaccines to the places where outbreaks are occurring so that we're able to limit the spread."

Maniar explained that the WHO declaring mpox a public health emergency is not a reason to panic because it simply serves as an alert to healthcare providers and helps mobilize global supply chains to ensure vaccines are available in areas impacted by the disease.

“People should do what they always do when it comes to mitigating the spread of disease,” Maniar said. “Wash your hands regularly, be aware of symptoms and go to your health care provider if you suspect you have mpox or have been in contact with someone who has mpox.”